Committed Global Warming Risks Triggering Multiple Climate Tipping Points

Many scenarios for limiting global warming to 1.5°C assume planetary-scale carbon dioxide removal sufficient to exceed anthropogenic emissions, resulting in radiative forcing falling and temperatures stabilizing. However, such removal technology may prove unfeasible for technical, environmental, political, or economic reasons, resulting in continuing greenhouse gas emissions from hard-to-mitigate sectors. This may lead to constant concentration scenarios, where net anthropogenic emissions remain non-zero but small, and are roughly balanced by natural carbon sinks. Such a situation would keep atmospheric radiative forcing roughly constant. Fixed radiative forcing creates an equilibrium “committed” warming, captured in the concept of “equilibrium climate sensitivity.” This scenario is rarely analyzed as a potential extension to transient climate scenarios. Here, we aim to understand the planetary response to such fixed concentration commitments, with an emphasis on assessing the resulting likelihood of exceeding temperature thresholds that trigger climate tipping points. We explore transients followed by respective equilibrium committed warming initiated under low to high emission scenarios. We find that the likelihood of crossing the 1.5°C threshold and the 2.0°C threshold is 83% and 55%, respectively, if today's radiative forcing is maintained until achieving equilibrium global warming. Under the scenario that best matches current national commitments (RCP4.5), we estimate that in the transient stage, two tipping points will be crossed. If radiative forcing is then held fixed after the year 2100, a further six tipping point thresholds are crossed. Achieving a trajectory similar to RCP2.6 requires reaching net-zero emissions rapidly, which would greatly reduce the likelihood of tipping events

A Measurement of Psi(2S) Resonance Parameters

Cross sections for e+e- to hadons, pi+pi- J/Psi, and mu+mu- have been measured in the vicinity of the Psi(2S) resonance using the BESII detector operated at the BEPC. The Psi(2S) total width; partial widths to hadrons, pi+pi- J/Psi, muons; and corresponding branching fractions have been determined to be Gamma(total)= (264+-27) keV; Gamma(hadron)= (258+-26) keV, Gamma(mu)= (2.44+-0.21) keV, and Gamma(pi+pi- J/Psi)= (85+-8.7) keV; and Br(hadron)= (97.79+-0.15)%, Br(pi+pi- J/Psi)= (32+-1.4)%, Br(mu)= (0.93+-0.08)%, respectively.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

Measurements of Cabibbo Suppressed Hadronic Decay Fractions of Charmed D0 and D+ Mesons

Using data collected with the BESII detector at $e^{+}e^{-}$ storage ring Beijing Electron Positron Collider, the measurements of relative branching fractions for seven Cabibbo suppressed hadronic weak decays $D^0 \to K^- K^+$, $\pi^+ \pi^-$, $K^- K^+ \pi^+ \pi^-$ and $\pi^+ \pi^+ \pi^- \pi^-$, $D^+ \to \bar{K^0} K^+$, $K^- K^+ \pi^+$ and $\pi^- \pi^+ \pi^+$ are presented.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figure

Why does fertilization reduce plant species diversity? Testing three competition-based hypotheses

1 Plant species diversity drops when fertilizer is added or productivity increases. To explain this, the total competition hypothesis predicts that competition above ground and below ground both become more important, leading to more competitive exclusion, whereas the light competition hypothesis predicts that a shift from below-ground to above-ground competition has a similar effect. The density hypothesis predicts that more above-ground competition leads to mortality of small individuals of all species, and thus a random loss of species from plots. 2 Fertilizer was added to old field plots to manipulate both below-ground and above-ground resources, while shadecloth was used to manipulate above-ground resources alone in tests of these hypotheses. 3 Fertilizer decreased both ramet density and species diversity, and the effect remained significant when density was added as a covariate. Density effects explained only a small part of the drop in diversity with fertilizer. 4 Shadecloth and fertilizer reduced light by the same amount, but only fertilizer reduced diversity. Light alone did not control diversity, as the light competition hypothesis would have predicted, but the combination of above-ground and below-ground competition caused competitive exclusion, consistent with the total competition hypothesis.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75695/1/j.1365-2745.2001.00662.x.pd

Measurement of the B0-anti-B0-Oscillation Frequency with Inclusive Dilepton Events

The $B^0$-$\bar B^0$ oscillation frequency has been measured with a sample of 23 million \B\bar B pairs collected with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II asymmetric B Factory at SLAC. In this sample, we select events in which both B mesons decay semileptonically and use the charge of the leptons to identify the flavor of each B meson. A simultaneous fit to the decay time difference distributions for opposite- and same-sign dilepton events gives $\Delta m_d = 0.493 \pm 0.012{(stat)}\pm 0.009{(syst)}$ ps$^{-1}$.Comment: 7 pages, 1 figure, submitted to Physical Review Letter

Antiprotons in cosmic rays from neutralino annihilation

We calculate the antiproton flux due to relic neutralino annihilations, in a two-dimensional diffusion model compatible with stable and radioactive cosmic ray nuclei. We find that the uncertainty in the primary flux induced by the propagation parameters alone is about two orders of magnitude at low energies, and it is mainly determined by the lack of knowledge on the thickness of the diffusive halo. On the contrary, different dark matter density profiles do not significantly alter the flux: a NFW distribution produces fluxes which are at most 20% higher than an isothermal sphere. The most conservative choice for propagation parameters and dark matter distribution normalization, together with current data on cosmic antiprotons, cannot lead to any definitive constraint on the supersymmetric parameter space, neither in a low-energy effective MSSM, or in a minimal SUGRA scheme. However, if the best choice for propagation parameters - corresponding to a diffusive halo of L=4 kpc - is adopted, some supersymmetric configurations with the neutralino mass of about 100 GeV should be considered as excluded. An enhancement flux factor - due for instance to a clumpy dark halo or to a higher local dark matter density - would imply a more severe cut on the supersymmetric parameters.Comment: 23 pages, 2 tables and 19 figures, typeset with ReVTeX4. The paper may also be found at http://www.to.infn.it/~fornengo/papers/pbar03.ps.gz or through http://www.to.infn.it/astropart/index.html A subsection added. Final version to appear in PR

Impacts of meeting minimum access on critical earth systems amidst the Great Inequality

The Sustainable Development Goals aim to improve access to resources and services, reduce environmental degradation, eradicate poverty and reduce inequality. However, the magnitude of the environmental burden that would arise from meeting the needs of the poorest is under debate—especially when compared to much larger burdens from the rich. We show that the ‘Great Acceleration’ of human impacts was characterized by a ‘Great Inequality’ in using and damaging the environment. We then operationalize ‘just access’ to minimum energy, water, food and infrastructure. We show that achieving just access in 2018, with existing inequalities, technologies and behaviours, would have produced 2–26% additional impacts on the Earth’s natural systems of climate, water, land and nutrients—thus further crossing planetary boundaries. These hypothetical impacts, caused by about a third of humanity, equalled those caused by the wealthiest 1–4%. Technological and behavioural changes thus far, while important, did not deliver just access within a stable Earth system. Achieving these goals therefore calls for a radical redistribution of resources